Slave, I have set my life upon a cast, And I will stand the hazard of the die, I think there will be six Richmonds in the field, Five I have slain to-day, instead of him, A horse! A Horse! My kingdom for a Horse” – Richard IV

This is what the chart for 2014 looks like, based on the actual Lap Chun Day and Time:

For some background on why it is that I do my annual analysis this way, please see explanations from 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 posts.

One of the predominant questions that has arisen for me from the Annual Forecast approach that I have used in the past has been the question about what Joey Yap has now termed “Rising Qi” or what I simply used to just describe as the Qi cycle. The idea is that although Feb 4th is the official change over date for each year, the energies in the prevailing months or preceding months, may bring about an earlier or later actual ‘kick in’ for the energies of the year. The result is that sometimes a year’s energies may be shortened (and perhaps arguably, intensified) or lengthened (creating a greater intermingling of the Qi, which for the lack of a better answer, results in muddled energies, hence muddled or mixed outcomes).

Jia Wu 2014 would kick in during February at the earliest because of two reasons:

a) Chou is the last Branch in the Si-You-Chou Combination of the year so it is difficult to imagine that the Snake is weakening in January 2014

b) Jia on top in 2014 along with Ding Fire in the Branches has a greater connect with the Tiger month – Tiger’s main Qi is Jia and Ding Fire is dependent on Wood for Resource.

So unlike in 2013, where the Snake arrived late to the race, the Horse is arguably well and truly here in February 2014.

Preliminaries done with, let’s look at what is interesting about the Annual Chart for 2014, with a specific focus on the economic considerations and geo-political issues.

Scrutinising the Technicalities

The first thing we want to do is look at what elemental conclusions we can draw from the annual chart. Here’s the quick bullet list impression:

• No Water at all (Bing-Xin Combo does not produce due to season)
• Super-strong Fire
• Wood in terrible shape despite support from the season due to the strength of Fire (both Jia and Yi wood are compromised)
• Extremely weak Metal element
• No Geng Metal present in the year.
• Uber-strong Earth due to the strong Fire.
• Fighting to Combine taking place between two Horses and single Tiger.
• Destruction between Horse-Rabbit in the Hour and Day pillars

Then we layer on the 10 Gods dimension using Bing as the DM – again, brain dump first, figure out meaning after:

• No Officer element in the year at all. 
• Strong Rob Wealth Star (based on Hour – Ding slightly advantaged, Bing still trying to get out of the dark)
• Two Bings – considered unfavourable composition because there can only be one sun.
• Indirect Resource Star is dominant (as Jia appears in Stem) whilst Direct Resource is heavily compromised due to the Destruction.
• Significantly, IR is protruding but DR is hidden (yet exposed by virtue of being a PB star).
• Wealth Star is very weak, and heavily attacked by Rob Wealth Star.
• No Indirect Wealth, only Direct Wealth.

Finally, we throw in a bunch of other non-categorisable observations from the Jia Zi, presentation of the Stems, Pillar interactions and Shifting Palace:

• We have two pillars from the same group: 丙 寅 and 丙午. 
• The presence of 辛 卯 is particularly interesting as this is one of the pillars that represents betrayal.
• 戌 is being drawn into the year by virtue of the presence of 寅 and 午 and 卯, all which combine with 戌.
• Using shifting Palace, Xin Metal is deluged by 7 Killings, as well as overwhelmed by excess Wealth. Using the same method, Jia Wood is inundated by Output and Rob Wealth.

Thematic Observations  

Now, taking all the technical information above, we attempt to procure some form of conclusion from the technical observations. We can do this by deriving a thematic idea about the year, as well as specific conclusions on industries and the economy. So let’s start with thematic ‘big ideas’ first.

Absence of Wisdom, Overdose of Passion

What struck me immediately upon seeing the 2014 chart is the absence of Water in the chart, tremendous strength of Fire and the poor quality (not weak, just not good quality) of Wood in the chart. The absence of Water is by far the most unfavourable feature of 2014’s chart. Water in the study of the Five Elements represents wisdom and the absence of water denotes accordingly, the increase in global stupidity as a whole. Meanwhile, the corresponding strength of the Fire element means an excess of passion.  What happens when you have global stupidity and excessive passion? Well typically, that means that people will do more stupid and irrational things that normal sometimes without considering if it is a smart idea – political unrest is the most classic example of irrational “passion-driven” activities that can take place on a global scale. Accordingly, expect the political hotspots in the world (the usual suspects, Middle East,  Balkans, Asian countries like Thailand, possibly China) to see a surge in political unrest and dissidence as people and some new hotspots to pop up (North and South West being likely geographical zones based on Clash + Combination).

In particular, the Hurting Officer Star is very strong this year. Whilst the Eating God star does appear in the Tiger month, the reason why the Hurting Officer Star is regarded as more prominent is because the Branch of the year, 午, is 丁 with 己. 午 is unique amongst the cardinals as it is the only one that has two elements, and this is because with Fire there is always Ash. One pays particular attention to 己 because it is in the year (and day) and therefore trumps the presence of 戊 in the month. So with Hurting Officer being strong, passion riding high, and an absence of wisdom (or as it were, law and order since Water specifically relates to the Officer Star) it all leads to the conclusion that there will be an intensification of activities related to rebellion against the existing order of things.

North-South Divide becomes exaggerated/North South Divide explodes?

I can’t claim a ton of credit for this but it became obvious when watching a program on Thailand and the fact that the poor North was essentially fighting against the more affluent urban South came up.  I then realised that North-South divide was essentially what 午  vs 子 clash meant. Then I Wiki-ed it and found out the North-South Divide is a real political-economic, global and intra-country problem. Traditionally, it has been a common theme in many countries – Italy has a North-South divide, as does China, with Thailand just being another example. Based on the Wiki article, the countries with a well-known North-South divide are China, Italy, Korea and Belgium.  Out of these four, two are politically high risk of late, whilst Italy and Belgium arguably haven’t shown signs of fracture. So one would expect tensions to escalate in Korea.

In the specific context of Thailand, the clash between Horse and Rat suggests that the problems of the ruling government will not be resolved by the election but will continue throughout the year. Interestingly, Yingluck Shinwatra’s chart shows a combination between her Friend Star (Big Brother?) and the Officer Star, which suggests that she may not call the shots for very long in Thailand (if she even does at all).

It’s also interesting to note that BRICs has three countries in the North (Russia, India, China) and one country in the South (Brazil). It will be interesting to see if the North-South divide plays a part in determining which of the BRICs flourishes in 2014, if at all, since the South would be engaged in a Self-Punishment (self-created problems) whilst the North will be facing a problem of constant opposition or a conundrum between doing what stimulates the economy, and pacifying emotions (Fire).

Trade Slowdown

My past naysaying on this (I did predict an asset crunch in 2012) is probably starting to sound like a broken record but I still maintain the non-scientific view that the last two years have not represented any real economic improvement, as has been suggested by the Bazi for the last 2-3 years. I continue to espouse that view at the moment, especially in light of the absence of water in the annual BaZi for 2014. Significantly, when we look at the chart for 2014 (it’s important to look at forward quarters when we consider the economic issues), there is a noticeable repeat in themes – weak metal, strong fire, strong wood – albeit with a slight improvement when it comes to the element of Water (but not a lot)

The absence of Water is regarded as also significant bad news on the economic front as Water represents activities, trade, logistics, transport and the movement of goods is typically used as an economic barometer. The return of Water in the Monkey month of 2014 will be the indicator for when the dry spell will end which means a tough first 2 quarters, until Monkey kicks in.  But in light of the 2014 chart and the fact that the natal chart of the year will to a large degree super-cede any effect of the months (and further, my argument that any economic recovery will only take place in 2016 Monkey year, signifying a full cycle from the start of the problem in 2008), I believe that the world economy will finally hit the wall that it has been trying to avoid in the next two years.

Next: Industry Specific Forecast