Today’s blog entry title is inspired by ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street‘, a famous treatise on the stock market by Burton Malkiel.

As a keen student of history, the idea of being able to forecast the future both intrigues and fascinates me. Which is one of the reasons why BaZi is tremendously exciting. It’s a bit like having the biography or history of a person in your hands. Annual forecasts based on the BaZi of the year are fascinating in the same way – just as history is a study of patterns, BaZi is also a study of patterns, cyclical patterns of Qi. But of course, the predictive aspect of BaZi provides a greater source of interest and discussion from a historical and current events standpoint. History by contrast, is preoccupied with analysing the past. In BaZi, the past is important, but the future also matters.

The concept of Forecasting itself is also quite interesting. The idea of forecasting the future based on astrology or elemental cycles is something that most people would scoff or laugh at. But for reasons that are inexplicable, we buy into forecasting by professional stock analysts, economists, bankers and money market people. This is in spite of the fact that as recent events have shown, they frequently have a vested self-interest in their statements, and are forecasting essentially on mathematical prediction models.

So why is it any different from BaZi which also involves using a prediction model, except the prediction model is premised on ‘mathematics’ of a different kind?

In my Forecast here, I’m going to focus largely on my thoughts on economic situations, and business because that is what interests me. I am not interested in forecasting natural disasters or catastrophes because these subjects do not interest me and I can’t see how knowing a disaster is forthcoming is helpful in any way. Forecasts for individual Day Masters for 2009 will be up on my baziforlove.com website.

Important disclaimer and caveat: I do not vouch for ANY of my forecasts of an economic nature because I believe that you cannot use BaZi alone for predictive modelling when it comes to the economy. The *real economists* thinking also counts, along with various number crunching. But the goal of this post is to effectively have something written down and then be able to revisit it or relook it as the year goes by to see where one hits, and where one misses. As such, any use of this information for your own investing or other types of activities is strictly on a caveat emptor basis and I make no warranties or guarantees of what I have written.

Ji Chou as a Pillar: Winter of Discontent

“Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this son [or sun] of York” – William Shakespeare in Richard III

You don’t need BaZi to know that the world is now facing an economic slowdown and that we are in a global recession. Average Jo on the street can tell you that. And the general forecast of most government’s or economists is that it will be a long recession – one to one and a half years. What does the Annual Pillar tell us? (or at least, how do we reverse engineer this conclusion using the Annual Pillar?)

己 丑 Ji Chou itself is suggestive of an absence of movement, or stillness. The visual image of Ji Chou is Earth on Earth. Depending on how cynical your outlook is, you can see it as a molehill, or a pile of crap if you like. You can see it as quicksand, or frozen wasteland. Either way, it ain’t moving. Furthermore, the entire pillar is Yin in nature – Ji Earth is Yin earth, and Ox as an Earthly Branch is regarded as having a Yin quality. And it is COLD. Although Chou is the last Branch in the season of Winter, it is still cold. Still frozen. So unmoving, and unchanging, still and passive, are already the hallmarks of the year based on the annual pillar.

That is the overall picture of the year. Now let’s drill into some specifics. And in this case, we are looking at Ox 丑.

The Year Pillar is a Graveyard, which means, in general BaZi terms, that whatever that element that is in the graveyard, and whatever it represents, comes to an end or conclusion or at the very least, hits the skids. The Ox is the graveyard of Gui 癸 Water. Water represents movement, activity and dynamism – it is the epitome of Yang Force. So therefore, with Water in the Graveyard, the economy is pretty much guaranteed to be in the toilet. Further there is no Wood in the year of 2009. Wood represents Growth, Progress and Advancement. So with no Wood, there is no progress.

But Ox is also the Storage of Xin 辛  Metal. Storage in BaZi suggests a goody – akin to hidden treasure or buried treasure. It may or may not come out, but it suggests something that is unseen. The Year PIllar is also a very clear Earth element pillar. Earth in the master of ten thousand things, but it is also full of secrets. Ji Earth specifically is is the type of Earth which buries, covers and hides (vs Wu Earth, which obviously doesn’t just bury, it crushes). But at the same time, Di Tian Shui also says that Ji Earth ‘protects the metal and nourishes the wood’.

At the same time, the Graveyards are regarded as the Earthly Branches that most closely connect with the alternative, the metaphysical, the hidden, the unseen. As such, there will possibly be a rise in interest in alternative arts so to speak. This of course connects also with the fact that Ji Chou most needs Bing Fire to warm it and to make the landscape beautiful. As Shakespeare put it in Richard III: “Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this son [or sun] of York”. Bing Fire is firmly associated with the metaphysical sciences, so we can say for sure that there will be a surge in interest in alternative opportunities or possibilities (perhaps all those out of job bankers who have their part to play in ruining the economy will seek penance in taking a year out doing something ‘meaningful’ with their lives!) Either way, people will be turning to the metaphysical and the alternative, to help them handle the doldrums of the year as Bing also represents Change and the capacity to Change. Bing Fire also represents Hope. So although there is no much hope that the economy will turn around in 2009, there is a need for hope to continue to be offered to the public.

Putting all this together, here are a few of the themes we could be looking at in 2009:

• covering up or hiding
• hoarding (especially the concept of storage)
• secrecy
• buried in the sense of being unable to stand out or show oneself
• flying under the radar (ie: unseen)
• Gestation or hibernation or incubation
• working quietly behind the scenes, or unseen

Translated into economic concepts, what are we looking at?

• Gold is Old, but still Gold! – this is of course already going on as Gold is the traditional standard-bearer during uncertain or negative times. However, as Xin is inside the graveyard and hidden, it is possible that although there is a retreat to the gold by investors, the price of gold will not become something that gains prominence or attention within the business pages. (I know it doens’t make sense but essentially, the price of gold will probably for example hold at a reasonably highish price, but it won’t be the focus of business reporters or journalists because it’s essentially, a non-starter)
• Diamonds become the new ‘unofficial’ currency – they hold their value through the ages and they are the ultimate portable currency. And they epitomise Xin Metal in every way. Because however this Xin Metal is hidden, it suggests that the use of diamonds as the new form of currency will be unofficial or undercover, or something done on the quiet. This also might suggest an increase in investments in diamonds and jewellery, rather than say gold.
• Return to Gold-Backed Currency – the US Dollar abandoned being Gold backed in the 1980s I think and as we move into 2009, there may be a resurgence in returning to the idea of gold-backed currency OR currencies that are gold-backed will become of interest to investors and speculators
• Hoarding is In – because the year is indicative of hidden treasure and in particular, Xin Metal is hiding. This means a few possibilities. People will horde currency or horde money (a given when the economy does not move). This is because Xin Metal also can be said to represent the treasury aka money. Alternatively, investors with cash will chose to put their money in something with less speculative value and more long-term value, such as baubles (gold, diamonds)
• Asset Recovery To the Fore – as the year is suggestive of things being hidden, forensic accounting to discover hidden assets will probably become of significance in 2009. Individuals and companies will be looking to hide assets. Quite why I have no idea but it is simply the imagery of the year – the idea of secrecy, trust issues, and undisclosed matters is nudging my thoughts along these lines. Although if I recently profiteered from a 50 billion dollar Ponzi scheme, I’d be doing a lot of asset hiding 🙂
• Bankrupcy Courts and Chancellery Courts are overwhelmed, Wheels of justice grind to a halt – Justice is represented by the element of Metal, is buried under Earth in 2008. Earth is the Resource star of Metal which means that it is paperwork and documentation that is grinding the system to a halt. Too much going on. As such, Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) mechanisms will become popular.
• Boutique investment houses and hedge funds will be active but under the radar – Xin is in Storage in 2008 within the Ox – this would appear to represent hidden potential, or something fomenting or operating under the radar. Xin is small and nimble, Geng is big and a heavyweight – this indicates that it is small boutique operations in the financial arena (such as hedgefunds) will be the ones that will be profiting or making their moves. The big heavyweights – both banks AND large hedgefunds like Citadel, will be stuck trying to figure out what they should do or bogged down by paperwork and compliance/regulation requirements.
• Cashflow problems and Credit Crunch continues – okay you don’t have to be a genius to know this but frozen earth with Water and Metal stuck underneath clearly indicates cashflow challenges and continuing credit freeze. Xin, which represents money, treasury and items like bonds, is buried under the Earth, suggesting it is stuck or unable to come to fore. As it is, the economy shows no movement, so this is no surprise.
• Real Estate and Construction hits a wall – again, this is to be expected since these are usually the hallmarks of a thriving economy. From a BaZi standpoint, this can be arguably derived from the fact that Ox, as an Earth Branch, has unfavourable interactions with the other Earth Branches like Dog, Dragon and Goat. And these interactions together represent procrastination, delay, obstacles, being bogged down or encountering frequent small problems. So even companies that are well capitalised may find that they suffer from construction delay or lag.

Next Post: Analysis by Sector with reference to Ji Chou 己 丑