Would you put a Big Spender in charge of the Central Bank?

by Oct 24, 2008BaZi Analysis, Economics & Money0 comments

According to Wikipedia, the role of the Federal Reserve is to “address banking panics”, serve as the lender of last resort and also regulate. In addition: “In its role as the central bank of the United States, the Fed serves as a ‘banker’s bank’ and as the government’s bank. As the banker’s bank, it helps to assure the safety and efficiency of the payments system”. The Fed’s role also is to set the US monetary policy.
The chairman of the Federal Reserve therefore is in effect, the US’s central banker.
Today’s blog entry stemmed from this article “Greenspan Denies Blame for Crisis” and because after the financial meltdown started to take place, some of the discussion centered around whether or not Alan Greenspan was to blame for present day situation. Current prevailing media coverage seems to suggest that increasing amount of blame is being heaped on him, especially by recent Noble Prize Laureate Paul Krugman.
From a BaZi standpoint, I have to say that Mr Irrational Exuberance is probably a little to blame, although in the first place, he is not the best candidate to appoint to the job of the Central Banker, based on BaZi. Here’s why:
Alan Greenspan, Fed Chairman 1987-2006

Alan Greenspan, Fed Chairman 1987-2006

Alan Greenspan (hour not known)

For heaven’s sakes, the Central Banker needs to be a conservative, prudent person. This person after all is literally responsible for the money of the US of A. Greenspan’s chart shows us clearly that he is a BIG SPENDER! Born in Rob Wealth, here is a guy who definitely can’t save his own money, much less other people’s. Who in their right sane mind would appoint someone who has no sense of savings and is all about spending, to be the Federal Reserve chairman in charge of setting monetary policy?

One of the criticisms of Greenspan is that he was perceived as too lax on regulation and promoted self-regulation. Well, people who are born in Rob Wealth do not like to be constricted by rules, and do not like to have inflexibility. Since they love to fly by the seat of their pants, and make decisions spontaneously and on the fly, Greenspan would have been amenable to the call for ‘non-regulation’ as it would create inflexibility from the banks that saw laws as standing in the way of their ability to make tons of (now we know only balance sheet) profits.

“My view of the range of dispersion of outcomes has been shaken, but not my judgment that free competitive markets are by far the unrivaled way to organize economies.” He concluded: “We have tried regulation ranging from heavy to central planning. None meaningfully worked. Do we wish to retest the evidence?” (Alan Greenspan)

““It is important, indeed crucial, that any reforms in, and adjustments to, the structure of markets and regulation not inhibit our most reliable and effective safeguards against cumulative economic failure: market flexibility and open competition.” (Alan Greenspan, FT 2008)

Free competitive markets is the catchphrase here. Free and competitive are both words which one would associate with the Rob Wealth star, which does not like to be constrained, and likes to go with the flow and dislikes control. Similarly, competitiveness is the

This Jia Wood, although born in a Prosperous season, is not considered to be quality wood because it is sitting on the Horse. This type of Jia is considered one of the less desirable types of Jia to be, since it is sitting on it’s Dead Stage star, according to the 12 Growth Stages. So this Jia Wood is like a dead shriveled up tree, in the middle of a thriving forest. So everyone (those darned Yi Woods!) are sponging off the dead tree (that would be all those private sector bankers who are now screaming blue murder).

This chart is a mass and morass of contradictions – the chart projects an Eating God manner (so everyone thinks Greenspan is the great Oracle who can do no wrong and the Wise One) but is in fact, a Hurting Officer at heart. Which means he’s all about going against the flow of conventional wisdom. Again, fine if the person is running a hedge fund, or perhaps a maverick economic consultancy but NOT what you want in a Central Banker. Central Bankers need to be prudent, conservative, and moderate against excessive activity in the banking system.

He is Jia Wood, which means he lacks flexibility, and adaptiveness, but yet he is born in Rob Wealth, which means he is all about doing things at the last minute. This chart shows incongruity in terms of personality and approach to matters related to money. He will be impossible to budge on his opinions (Hurting Officer believes they are always right) but yet reluctant to commit to a specific choice because Metal is weak in this chart, thus decision-making capacity is poor. This might explain the infamous tendency towards Fed-Speak by Greenspan (“The jargon-laden fence-sitting opaque style of Fed communication, especially under the previous Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, has often been called “Fed speak” – sic Wikipedia).

“It was a striking swipe at Greenspan, who adamantly resisted any effort to set rules that would limit the Fed’s discretion and prided himself on his ability to dodge questions and, as he once put it, only partly tongue-in-cheek, “mumble with great incoherence.” Greenspan was a master of old-style “Fed-speak,” deliberately creating an atmosphere of ambiguity to preserve his maneuvering room.” (International Herald Tribune)

Ah, these Rob Wealth types – they are master of excuses, wriggle room, but also  the gift of the gab. Which might explain why Greenspan always manages to sell his ideas convincingly, and come up with these neat catchphrases like ‘Irrational Exuberance’ even if they are a bit half-baked. Hence, it is no surprise that he conveniently managed to explain why he’s not at fault for what happened in the financial markets in the Senate. Also, Metal is weak in this chart, meaning memory and recall are not as good as they should be since Metal represents memory. So it’s quite likely that Alan Greenspan isn’t so much unable to answer, as he’s forgotten the answer! (but then again, he is getting on in age so…)

And of course, these Rob Wealth types – all about the good times, and never about doing something that makes you unpopular, or disliked.

“In early 2004, he urged homeowners to shift from fixed to floating rate mortgages, and in early 2005, he extolled the virtues of sub-prime borrowing—the extension of credit to unworthy borrowers. Far from the heartless central banker that is supposed to “take the punchbowl away just when the party is getting good,” Alan Greenspan turned into an unabashed cheerleader for the excesses of an increasingly asset-dependent U.S. economy. I fear history will not judge the Maestro’s legacy kindly.” Stephen Roach (16  March 2007). “The Great Unraveling“, Morgan Stanley.

It’s interesting to note that when Greenspan first became the Fed Chairman, he was going through a Direct Officer Luck Pillar, but a Direct Officer sees Hurting Officer pillar. So this would explain a lot of the criticism that was directed at him at this time for being slow to act, or perhaps being overly prudent when the US stock market went into nosedive in 1987.

But his focus on maintaining the stock market’s rise through the dotcom bubble and then the housing bubble coincided with a period of strong Indirect Wealth Luck Pillars in his chart. So of course his focus would have been at that time on ‘money, money, and more money’ and allowing for the everyone to share in the wealth via stock options and the stock market. He would also have been more daring with his ideas, since there is a complete Tiger-Horse-Dog combination, producing a strong Hurting Officer during this period. So, he would have bucked the trend, no matter what people said.

The bottom line is that no Central Banker should ever be a person who is born in Rob Wealth. These are people who don’t know how to take care of things, and who simply are not conservative enough, prudent enough or in Greenspan’s case responsible enough (note that the Metal in this chart is extremely weak, given the amount of prosperous Wood) to do the right thing. Whatever charm offensive Greenspan will be on this week as he mounts a campaign to save his reputation, is obviously going to be Rob Wealth all the way. It’s a pity about the Punishment from the Year. But hey, he’s going to make money in 2009 – no doubt a whole bunch of suckers who want to hear from the guy who doesn’t know how to handle money, tell them how the stock market will do. And a guy who has no commitment to his ideas, tell them how best to handle the financial meltdown.

So in a way, the Americans can thank George Bush for ONE THING and that’s appointing a Fed Chairman who IS the prudent, conservative type.

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