DISCLAIMER: This article is strictly for academic discussion purposes and should not be construed as offering any form of investment advice. All investment decisions made by readers of this blog remain strictly their own, and the author disclaims any and all liability, in the event of losses, financial or otherwise, as a result of reading this analysis.

In emerging markets, all eyes are on Janet Yellen as the action of the Federal Reserve (“to raise, or not to raise, that is the question) is likely to have significant impact on certain emerging markets, particularly their currencies. This is the case particularly with Malaysia. Of course, understanding the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is a notoriously obscure and difficult art. CNBC devoted an entire article to figuring out what the Fed Chair(wo)man is pronouncing, which they suggested was up there with reading tea leaves.

CNBC resorted to actually analysing her words and seeing how many times she said certain words in order to try to figure out what she was thinking.

Janet Yellen’s chart was discussed in my 10 Gods Redux Video Class – here is a short snippet that is instructional.

Here is Yellen’s chart – there is no hour of birth, which somewhat complicates the job of accurate forecasting, especially since Yellen’s age would put her closer to the Hour Pillar.

Janet Yellen is a 己未 Day Master. She is currently in her 己丑 10 year Luck Pillar.

The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October and December 2015, during which a rate hike (increase in interests rates in the US) may be announced. There has been much fluctuating opinion on whether or not the rate hike will take place, suggesting that there is no unanimity within the Federal Reserve (as forecasted for Yellen’s chart).

So what does the chart suggest Yellen’s next course of action is likely to be? And will October’s Federal Reserve meeting actually produce the long expected yet not seemingly materialising outcome of a rate hike?

As explained in the video above,  Janet Yellen does not get to make the decision on her own. She is the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System but on committees such as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which has 12 other members, any policy has to attain “consensus”.

“Consensus”  is not actually “Decision”.

So the key thing is that Janet Yellen’s “Decision” has to attain “Consensus” from her other 12 colleagues. Now, people generally agree with you for two reasons only – one, they RESPECT YOUR LEADERSHIP and so agree with you because they think you are right or because they think even if you are wrong, you can fix it. Two, they LIKE you and so agree to go along with it because this is one decision out of a dozen and they figure, they will let this one slide OR they are prepared to give your decision a chance.

Leadership = 7k/DO star

Likeability = RW/DR and or IR star.

Let’s bank all that information first and take a look at the chart. Here it is again.

From the video snippet, we worked out that Madam Chairwoman would have problems due to issues with the Friend/Rob Wealth Star – note that there is a partial Bullying Punishment with the Dog in the chart and a clash to the 10 year LP of Ji Chou 己丑. We know from recent news that Yellen and her colleagues are not necessarily agreeing on this rate hike issue. As Business Insider notes “With financial markets increasingly predicting rates will not rise until next year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen attempted to set the record straight last week when she said the central bank was still on track to move before year end.But the conflicting messages from Dudley, Williams and Evans did little to clear the air.”

Thus, the attainment of consensus will be difficult, and even harder for decision to be secured as well. The reason is simple: although we have a strong Yi 乙 Wood (7 Killings Star), it forms the Bullying Punishment and Clash with the Friend/Rob Wealth Stars in Yellen’s chart. Thus, the ability to act is being encumbered by supporters (read: Friends/Rob Wealth). Preponderance of Earth also typically suggests procrastination or simply the inability to progress or inertia. Finally, there is the absence of the Resource Star this year, as a result of Ding 丁 Fire entering graveyard. Remember, in 2014 which was Jia Wu 甲午, there was a combination with the Goat 未 in Yellen’s Day Pillar and Dog 戌 in her Year Pillar, giving rise to additional Fire which is her Resource. Hence 2014 didn’t give her much fits, but in 2015, the pressure is mounting.

That being said, the September postponement of the hike reflects an uncertainty on the part of the Fed Chairwoman as well. September is 乙酉 Yi You – Eating God conflicted with 7 Killings. Thus, the desire to act decisively (and possibly drastically) is being countered by the concern that it is not the correct long-term decision.

Assuming we want to forecast forward and try to read the Yellen tea leaves, we will look to October and December, which is when the next Fed meetings are scheduled. October is Bing Xu 丙戌 and December is Wu Zi 戊子

DISCLAIMER: This forecast is being done without the benefit of the Hour pillar, which is somewhat crucial here given the age of Janet Yellen. As such, the information/forecast here should not be relied upon for financial investment activity and should be acknowledged as being purely for academic discussion purposes.

Bing Xu is a Resource month, which suggests a holding pattern position since Resource signals waiting, thinking, patience, deliberation, seeking information (or as Yellen put it “data driven”). However, this is a Fu Yin with the Year Pillar in Yellen’s chart. Resource is missing – specifically Direct Resource. This suggests either insufficient information or more likely, lack of support. All this strongly points to a rate hike NOT being announced in October 2015.

So what then of December 2015? Well, Ding Hai 丁亥 month produces a combination with the Wei in Yellen’s Day Pillar, and also is a combination with the year Yi Wei 乙未. The outcome of this combination is Wood, specifically the 7 Killings Star. Ignoring for a minute that it is the less ideal 7 Killings Star, this ultimately still denotes leadership (as opposed to Resource, which is horrid consensus or cannot agree or keep on waiting). As such, November represents the month in which Madam Chairwoman has the best chance of bulldozing her colleagues into seeing her way.  Now, it does help that there is an Indirect Resource Star in the month in the form of the Ding 丁 Stem suggesting an unexpected Good Samaritan helper – perhaps Warren Buffett will give his blessings to Madam Chairwoman’s plans or reading of the economic tea leaves. Alternatively, Madam Chairperson comes up with a novel or out of the box justification, which sounds both pragmatic, financially sound and sensible as well (since Ding brings with it Direct Wealth 壬 and Direct Officer 甲 within the Hai 亥 ). Of course, the other option is that since it is Indirect Resource, Madam Chairperson’s other colleagues on the board decide to what we say colloquially in Malaysia “give chance” although it could also be read as “give face”.

 

The problem of course is that the announcement of the rate hike would technically only take place during the next FOMO meeting which per the Fed’s calendar is schedule for Dec 15-16. That would be well into December 2015 or 戊子.  Assuming that the December meeting actually involves deliberation (as opposed to just an announcement), what does December hold for Madam Chairperson?

Wu Zi 戊子 is a mixed bag for Madam Chairperson – whilst the Zi 子 is a combination with the Chou 丑 in her 10 year LP and the Shen 申 in her Month, it is also a Harm to the Wei 未 in her Day Pillar, and of course, with the Yi Wei year. What do all these interactions indicate?

The central player in the discussion is the Indirect Wealth Star which is Gui 癸in the Zi 子. In economic terms, Indirect Wealth is entrepreneurship but could also be interpreted as high growth (vs organic growth). It could also therefore be linked to business climate, vis a vis conduciveness to businesses growing/hiring/expanding.

Wu 戊 sitting on top of the Zi 子 indicates that Yellen’s colleagues are concerned with economic growth. The Zi combining with the Chou in the 10 year LP serves to bind the Chou or hold it, arguably limiting the effect of the Bullying Punishment. This is suggestive that the parties are agreeing to disagree and allying together not because they fundamentally agree, but because they are concerned about common issues. This is how I would read the Zi-Wei Harm (read: I hate your decision but I’ll go with it because I think we need it for X, which is my priority, but not yours).

Shen 申 which is the Hurting Officer combining with the Zi 子  underneath the Wu 戊  also suggests that there is an embracing of an unconventional or very contrarian move, in the name of economic expediency or in order to give the economy a shot in the arm. In this instance, one reads Wu 戊 as the rest of the Fed Board, and the Shen 申 as Yellen’s idea to hike the rate, and interprets the combination as a ‘connection’. (in this instance, the hike may be larger than people expect since it is a Hurting Officer).

One might add that Wu Zi is also considered a combination that produces Fire (within the context of Wu 戊 and Gui 癸 combination), which is the Resource Star here. However, Wu and Gui are also considered non-sentimental combination, denoting fleeting passion or in this case, fleeting consensus perhaps).

Putting it all together, perhaps one can conclude that the rate hike will happen in 2015, but it will not be the outcome of a single meeting in December, but a collective effort of Madam Chairperson’s efforts in November to exert her leadership (supported subtly by captains of the industry or perhaps, the odd Noble Economics prize winner, and the occasional Oracle), followed by a case of attaining consensus even if the motivations of the parties for agreeing, and the outcomes they intend to attain as a result of the rate hike, being fundamentally different.