Note: this post has since been updated with news information from 2016, reflecting outcomes (correct or wrong) discussed here. 

The method here is to use shifting palace to read the individual five industries, paying attention in particular to the quality of the Wealth Star for the industry in question. Here is a reminder of the 2015 BaZi chart:

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: My forecasts are done as a matter of academic interest, and I make it public as a form of intellectual accountability. Under no circumstances do I in any way recommend you ACT upon such information, and I shall not be responsible for any losses, financial or otherwise, as a result of reliance on the information presented here.

Elemental Overview

2015’s chart is interesting in that it is an extremely elementally one sided chart for many elements. Metal and Water are extremely weak, Earth would be considered neither weak nor strong (since the Fire element is strong in 2015), whilst Fire and Wood are extremely strong. Both Water and Metal have no Companion Stars, so they are not just weak due to season, but lack support. Interestingly, both Water and Metal also have weak Resource elements in the chart. This clearly strongly indicates that the Water and Metal industries will be the biggest losers in 2015, either facing major industry problems arising from a lack of collaboration or cooperation (or takeovers rather than mergers) or an inability to go to the capital markets.

Fire and Wood are the strongest elements in 2015 – however, the strength in this case comes from both competition and Resource. Strength from Resource is not a bad thing but strength from competition is a cause of concern if there is a corresponding lack of Wealth. This means the industry suffers from dog-eat-dog problems or becomes cannablistic, with a ‘survival of the fittest’ circumstance arising. This would seem to be the case with the Fire industry, whilst the Wood industry has less of a problem with this because the Wealth Star for Wood (which is Earth) is fairly strong.

Finally, Earth would be considered strong in 2015 from Resource but affected by excess Wood, which is regulation and oversight, as well as weak Wealth, as Water is weak in 2015. This creates different problems for the Earth industry, suggesting a contracting environment possibly due to a stringent legal environment, amidst declining revenues.

Water Industries (Logistics, Tourism, Drinks, Fisheries, Aquatics, Travel, Shipping)

 

Fire is strong in 2015, which would seem to suggest that Water industries would do well since the wealth element of Water is Fire. Oddly enough, the corollary to this is that the global economy picks up since conventionally, service industries, logistics, travel and shipping tend to do better when the economy is good, compared to when it is ailing. As a bellweather of the broader economic world at large, this would appear to suggest that the overall sentiment of the global economy will improve in 2015. The problem is that Water is extremely weak in this chart, with no Companion element or strong Resource element to support it. As such, it would seem that there is opportunity, but no capacity or ability to take on the work in 2015 for these industries, which translates into little short-term gains for Water industries, at least, those represented by Gui Water. As such, Water industries that are more inherently related to Ren Water (such as shipping, aquatics, fisheries, cruise tourism) are likely to do better than those related to Gui Water (more nimble, generalist or high turnover/volume type service industries).

Another possible economic interpretation of strong Fire in the face of Weak Water (wealth is overwhelming) is that the converse outcome is true: that money becomes a problem. As the Output Star is very strong in 2015 for Water industries, this may suggest over-reaching or becoming overly ambitious  due to the perception of plentiful opportunities – by contrast, Resource of weak, suggesting a lack of ability to tap into capital markets or paper funding in order to take advantage of opportunities.

Fire Industries (Aviation, Media, Entertainment, Technology, Oil and Gas)

At the time of writing, much has been made about the drop in oil prices and a likely rebound in the 2nd half of 2015. Technically, this was already reflected in the chart for 2014, wherein it was noted that there was only Direct Wealth for the Fire industry in 2014, and no Indirect Wealth. (since the Day Master for 2014 was Bing, thus Bing was used as Fire reference, not Ding for 2014). In 2015, note that the Fire element is EXTREMELY STRONG (both Six Harmony combo between Horse-Goat and also partial Three Harmony Combo with Horse and Tiger) whereas the Wealth element, represented by Xin Metal is extremely weak.  Reflecting the trend that can be seen in the oil industry, there is tremendous competition (Opec countries are basically chosing NOT to regulate by controlling production, leaving oil producers to simply kill each other). The peak of the decline in oil prices will, if one follows this logic, continue until at least Goat month (July), before making some form of a recovery, when some Metal enters the chart, providing some support to the singular Metal Star. It also coincides with the third pillar for the year of 2015,  which is 辛亥, suggesting Q3 of 2015 will see some improvement to oil prices. However, it seems one should not be too optimistic of the price of oil rebounding significantly according to the BaZi of the year for two reasons: firstly, the final pillar of 2015 is 甲午 which is the annual pillar for 2014 (when oil prices started to slip), secondly, the final pillar of the year is strong fire consuming its own resource, suggesting that the industry must continue to operate in survivalism mode rather than prosperity mode.  Of course, to really know whether or not oil will rally in 2016, one has to see the chart for 2016. (a topic to be revisited I think)

Hollywood can expect a continuing decline in revenue despite the huge line up of blockbusters and tentpoles – 2014 already followed that trend as this article in The Wrap notes: “With the holiday season soft, it’s clear the 2014 domestic box office is going to wind up down from last year by nearly 5 percent”. With Fire so strong, and Metal very weak, it will be a hot summer at the box office, with less money all around for everyone in my view, even if nothing bombs out technically. There will be more films for consumers to chose from (due to the preponderance of Rob Wealth) but also, more sources of entertainment that will detract from films (another method of reading Rob Wealth). With Ding Fire entering graveyard, will one major Hollywood studio go bust in 2015? I’m thinking yes.

The Resource Star for the Fire Industry is quite strong in this year which means that Fire industries that rely conventionally on paper wealth as a metric for financial success (such as Silicon Valley) will not see any major decline in fortunes, although their cash positions may be quite the opposite.

Airlines and aeronautical industry players should expect 2015 to continue to be tough. Air crashers will reduce (as we move out of the Horse year, into the Goat year) but we should expect the performance of airlines to continue to be difficult, especially those with weak cash positions. Truly in 2015, only the strongest and riches airlines will survive. In Goat, Ding Fire enters graveyard, which suggests that we will see some airlines filing for bankruptcy or just going out of business, especially the smaller ones (budget airlines?).

Overall for Fire industry, listed companies will suffer less since they can use corporate finance wizardry to disguise their actual financial circumstances – with Wood being strong, on paper, the industries will continue to look good. But if you really want to look at the health of the Fire industry, look at cash positions of the companies. With strong Rob Wealth, only the truly strong will survive.

Earth Industries (Real Estate, Insurance, Construction, Mining)

 

Water is very weak in 2015, heralding yet another poor year for the mining industry, which has been on the downturn anyway. But who cares about the mining industry when we can talk about real estate? Earth years always  IMHO have a negative impact on real estate since the element of Earth will invariably be in a clash or punishment type situation, and usually in individuals, Earth-related problems tend to suggest asset crunches or liquidity issues due to cash being stuck in property. This is more likely to be the case in a year when there is no Wealth for the Earth industry.

2015’s chart has an interesting development affecting Pig 亥, which is the Wealth element for Earth. Firstly, there are two combinations fighting to happen between the Pig-Tiger and the Pig-Goat. In both instances, the element of Wood is produced. This suggests two possible conclusions:

– Excessive regulation is giving rise to revenue limitations for property developers (since Wood represents Officer, and officer is Control)

– Overly-aggressive approach by the developers (perhaps in a desperate attempt to keep things going) – perhaps they over-build, over commit resources, discount aggressively – affects the overall revenue of the industry. (since we would interpret excessively dominant Wood as leaning towards 7 Killings, rather than Direct Officer)

An interesting feature in 2015’s chart also is that Earth is clearly represented in the pillars by 戊寅. This is Earth seated on 7 Killings. This indicates two things: firstly, that the likely behaviour we see in the real estate market and industry in 2015 will be an aggressive (if not underhanded) one so buyer should truly beware and perhaps consider sitting out the market. Secondly, it is strongly suggestive of construction problems, since Wood is attempting to control the Earth. Expect higher than average instances in 2015 of construction accidents and mishaps, and maybe even a few more buildings collapsing (either due to earthquake or shoddy building), especially during the Earth months of 辰 and 戌, as well as 丑.

Metal Industries (Banking, Finance, Automobiles, Legal, Military)

 

It would seem to be a good year for Metal given that Wood and Fire are strong in 2015. The problem is like a number of the other elements for 2015, Metal is overwhelmed by excessive Wood and Fire because there is effectively no support for the element in 2015.  One possible extrapolation of the chart vis-a-vis the currencies is that small currencies (辛) will lose out to larger currencies by way of devaluation so we may expect to see more developing world currencies to potentially be battered in 2015. The rationale for this is that the Xin is being overcontrolled by Wood (wealth) and Fire (officer) which suggests being at the mercy of money (more valuable/stronger currencies) or at the mercy of pressure/stress from currency traders (excess fire in this case being translated into 7k).

The bad year for the banking industry was already heralded in early when Standard Chartered announced layoffs. Given the chart for 2015, we can continue to expect a bad year for the finance and banking industry, but specifically for smaller or boutique banks. Since it is Xin that is prominent and not Geng, this suggests (common sense yes, but I’ll say it anyway) that it will be the smaller banks that will suffer. Xin is also more likely to have a hard time with too much Wood in the chart of 2015 than Geng. Geng of course, does not appear in 2015’s chart, which suggests the big banks will remain under the radar. That doesn’t of course mean that they will escape a bad year.

Of course, this conclusion seems to NOT make sense – is there not a preponderance of wealth (in the form of Wood) in the chart in 2015? Whilst that is the case, the reality is that too much of the control elements (both Wealth and Officer are considered elements that control the Day Master) means that money and laws or power BECOME problems (as opposed to becoming useful).  As such, the conclusion that the banking industry will take a dive is derived from the fact that the Metal element (which represents the banking/finance industry) is too weak to take on the Wealth element, and is also being inundated by the Officer element. This translates into not being able to make money despite the fact that there is money to be made (due to a lack of size/lack of resources), or that regulatory compliance proves too burdensome in comparison to the income to be made OR that the industry is not working as one or it is a every man (or bank) for itself in 2015, since there is a fundamental lack of support stars for the industry in 2015.

Note:

As a side note, one would also therefore expect the automotive industry to experience a similar downturn in 2015, with the luxury cars or niche manufacturers bearing the brunt of the problems in 2015.

Note: Bentley reported that it had delivered 1,615 cars to China in 2015 – down 36 per cent or 945 cars from 2,560 in 2014 – and was ‘not immune’ to the general trading problems there. The dramatic fall in China dragged down the firm’s global sales tally to 10,100 – a 8.35 per cent fall from the record 11,020 achieved in 2014. That is the lowest figure since 2012 when 8,510 cars were sold, and is below the 10,120 achieved in 2013, though is the third largest sales figure overall. It comes just a day after rival Rolls-Royce, owned by BMW, reported a seven per cent drop in global sales following a 54 per cent fall in China. (British luxury car-maker Bentley suffers 8% drop in global sales)

If one was into the stock market, the outlook would be bearish for 2015, with the Spring and Summer months (first half of 2015) being when the stock market is likely to be on a downward trend.

Wood Industries (education, timber, agriculture)

 

Wood industries look to be the best performer in 2015, suggesting the agriculture and commodities will do well in 2015. Granted, there is intense competition as well, but at least the Wealth Star for Wood industries (which is Earth) is not lacking. As Yi Wood typically manages competition better than Jia Wood, this would suggest that high value commodities or commodities that yield small fruit (such as cocoa, vanilla, soy, peanuts) might do better than commodities that arise from big trees (such as timber or palm oil).

The Resource Star for Wood industries is Water, and it is weak in 2015. This would suggest that hardier crops, rather than those sensitive to rain or drought, would perform better than crops with tremendous vulnerability to water issues (such as rice). This of course gives rise to a unique situation where commodities traders (who make money from futures or hedging of commodities) will do well, whereas producing countries that rely on agriculture for income may find themselves either blossoming or blighted, depending on their crop mix. Weakness of water in 2015 clearly indicates drought or water related problems, which affects harvest for countries with less sophisticated agricultural methods.

Note: Business Insider declared “2015 was a bloodbath for commodities”. And aside from Cocoa, which did perform, Vanilla beans are also rising in price.

Education, which is also represented by the Wood element, looks to do well in 2015, although competition will also be rife.

Some Conclusions

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: My forecasts are done as a matter of academic interest, and I make it public as a form of intellectual accountability. Under no circumstances do I in any way recommend you ACT upon such information, and I shall not be responsible for any losses, financial or otherwise, as a result of reliance on the information presented here.

• Agriculture and commodities will perform well, but overall global stock market indices will likely to be bearish. Commodities traders may do well, even as agriculture-driven economies may suffer due to drought issues.
• Cash problems for Fire industry companies but those with good access to capital markets or fund raising will do better than those without (read: unlisted will suffer more than listed).
• Competitive year for Fire industries, in which it will be a case of survival of the fittest and cash pile will be key. Possible airline, movie studio, telco bankruptcy in 2015 by end Summer.
• Oil price to remain low, with slight improvement in Q3 before declining again.
• Service industries will do well – may expect to see some mergers in this sector in an attempt to gain strength to tackle broadening marketplace. Will one of the big management consulting firms merge with each other?
• Small currencies likely to experience attack in 2015 or financial problems due to appreciation/devaluation. Small banks and boutique financial setups will have a tough 2015, eventhough there are opportunities to make money. Only the big will survive. Regulatory environment in 2015 to get tougher as well.
• Real estate may stagnate, or show modest growth only, even as regulatory environment tightens. However, no mergers, and no excessive competition.