A couple of days ago a friend asked me if I’m going to make the call about November 6th. This was a friend who won a bet with me (after I called it for McCain) on the basis of BaZi. I told him that it was close and that one of the reasons why I have not been able to write my answer to this question is because I am not sure. Also, after revisiting the lessons learned from ‘Who will be POTUS‘ (and the accompanying post where I dissected the error of my ways – ‘Revisiting the Obama-McCain Bazi Analysis‘ ), I’m writing this post to both make my prediction (wrong or right because what’s the fun in private predictions) and to explore methods for making such predictions. Finally, hindsight being 20-20, applying an understanding of 4 more years of BaZi practice to the whole equation may yield different thinking too.

In my previous analysis of the 08 election, I placed a great deal of premium on the relationship of the players to the Tai Sui or Grand Duke of the year. Accordingly, I called it for McCain because both McCain and Palin at the time, had Branches in their BaZi that connected to the Grand Duke of the Year, which was the Rat.

John McCain - BaZi & LP

Sarah Palin - BaZi & LP

Obama on the other hand, had a combination with the year but it was a weaker combination – the Six Harmony. His running mate, Joseph Biden, also had the same weaker combination.

Barack Obama - BaZi & LP

Joseph Biden - BaZi & LP

On the assumption that the key was the combination with the Grand Duke, McCain-Palin were a shoo-in, especially since McCain was also going through an Officer Luck Year.

Revisiting the Methodology

Using the year’s influence alone clearly is not the answer because frequently, US Presidential candidates only become confirmed at the party’s convention, which takes place late in the year. So the Tai Sui’s influence will clearly impact on ANYONE who succeeds in becoming the candidate for their party. To succeed to the White House clearly, the Tai Sui’s influence is less relevant perhaps than the Luck Pillar’s influence. In the case of McCain, he was actually going through a Hurting Officer Luck Pillar and the combination of his Luck Pillar with the Year (2008) was producing Water, which was his COMPETITOR STAR. As McCain was a strong Day Master, this was NOT a favourable element for him.

By contrast, Obama was going through the last year of his Xin Mao Luck Pillar. With the assistance of the Pig month of 2008 (which was Gui Hai and was only 3 days from the election date), this gave him the complete Hai-Mao-Wei combination, which produces his Officer Star.

In my 2008 methodology, I argued that the Three Harmony Combination would trump the Six Harmony Combination and called it for McCain-Palin on the basis that they had the Three Harmony Combination. In my excitement, I forgot the important secondary rule which was: is the combination favourable and does it produce the Star we want. Although Obama had an inferior combination with the year, his Three Harmony Combination produced his Officer Star, versus Palin and McCain, who had their superior Three Harmony Combination with the year produces no Officer Star.

Emphasis was also placed on the effect of the Zi in 2008 contaminating/Harming the 7 Killings Star for both McCain and Harming the 7 Killings Star of Obama. However, it can be argued that the effect and power of the Luck Pillar supersedes this arguably or is not particularly relevant since given the gruelling nature of the US Presidential race, some reputational damage is inevitable!

So, returning to the subject of the methodology, one is confronted with the question of how quite to rank the various factors that are in play – namely:

• 10 year Luck Pillar
• Combination with Tai Sui of the year
• Harm/Clash involving Officer Star
• Elements of the Year Pillar

Further, the methodology for evaluation must take into account the difference between the 2008 election and the 2012 election. In 2008, both Obama and McCain were Contenders. Arguably, in that year, the power of the Officer Star is key, along with the influence of the Favourable Element to tip things along just that much more. In 2012, Obama is the incumbent, and Romney is the challenger – is the Officer Star just as relevant? Significantly also, Obama is now in a very different Luck Pillar from the Luck Pillar he went through in 2008.