Before I launch into 2011, it’s instructional to think about how forecasts ought to be done, especially if one is looking to study the socio-economic effects. The first thing is that the forecast must look at the chart for the year that follows and the year that precedes.  This is because economic cycles (specifically) do not operate on an exact 365 days = 1 year manner. The forecast for a given quarter in a year is often based on what happened in the preceding quarter, what is likely to happen during the following quarter, and current market conditions.  Also, we judge the results of a quarter at the END of the quarter, not in the middle or at the beginning, which is why the quarter that is incoming is relevant.

The logic behind this is the same way we look at a conventional BaZi chart. When we forecast the effect of an incoming year, we look at the current year, but also the year after that. So if I am doing a reading for someone about 2011, what happened in 2010 is relevant (since this dictates current state of mind/current situation/current challenges) to determine how far the person can get in 2011. Similarly 2012 is relevant because 2012 is the year when the outcomes of 2011’s actions will come home to roost – the extent/quality of the outcomes is to a large degree dictated by 2012 unless the person’s actions are VERY SHORT TERM.

And even on a short-term basis, forecasting on the month, one still always looks at past, present and future.

Here is the chart for 2011

Axe-Grinding Rabbit

As per the analysis method referenced above, here are the charts for 2010:

Metalica Tiger

And here’s 2012:

2012

For my forecast of 2011, I’m going to use back the same ideas as I have done for the last 2 years I’ve been writing about the Annual Forecast, looking at THEMES and IDEAS. I like this approach because it sort of mimics the way economic forecasters do their forecasts, but also because as an avid student of history and politics, I think that this is really what forecasting is all about. A macro perspective.

Briefly to recap: 2010’s theme was Againstness. What is 2011’s theme?

If we look at 2011’s first three pillars, the theme of Againstness continues. This cool composite of 2010 and 2011 I made will show you what I mean (read from right to left, as one does with BaZi).

Tiger Meets Rabbit

The Wood vs Metal concept actually persists throughout much of 2011, and arguably with greater intensity and ferocity than 2010. In essence, whatever has been plaguing the world (socially, economically, politically) in the latter half of 2010 (think Wikileaks, hung Parliaments, liberals vs conservatives, a sense of betrayal, a dog-eat-dog world, Korean peninsular tensions) will continue to be at the forefront of 2011, and indeed, will dominate 2011.

Whatever existing political firestorms that exist now will likely intensify and become more hard edged as 2011 persists. 2011 does contain a strong indication of a conflict escalating to become a war or armed conflict (those that aren’t already wars – the Korean peninsular situation seems like the biggest likelihood right now) because of 2011 has a serious tinderbox quality about it.

So in addition to the theme of Againstness that seems to be continuing in 2011, one should add the theme of volatility and high tension.

Why does 2011 look like a tinderbox? Firstly, Geng Metal chops Jia Wood, produces Ding Fire is the traditional BaZi saying. And Ding Fire, whilst it denotes illumination, education and enlightenment, is also explosiveness, and denotes small things flaring up into big things. (think about how embers can suddenly flare up into a bonfire when fed a little ‘resource’ encouragement, and of course, Backdraft).

But it could be argued Tiger (Yin) is wet wood, being so close to the end of Winter and wet wood doesn’t catch fire easily. So doesn’t the tinderbox look more like a damp squib? (aka, false alarm).

The cause for the alarm bells is the final pillar (quarter) for 2011, which is a Ren Wu 壬 午 pillar. Ren Wu is regarded as a pillar that denotes ‘explosiveness’ and sudden  changes in outcomes. It is a pillar that exemplifies volatility. The reason is two fold: firstly, because it is Water above and Fire below, which is contrary  and in violation to the way those two elements SHOULD be located in the study of the Five Elements. (cf. in the Lo Shu, Fire is above, and Water is below because elementally Fire RISES, and Water moves in a downward force). Secondly, Water and Fire clash elementally. Pictorally, the image of Ren Wu is similar to that of a fire being doused. A gush of water, against any fire (except a very small one) will produce spluttering and hissing.

Significantly, the Hour Pillar conventionally represents that which happens in the blink of an eye, or in the shortest possible span of time. The Hour Pillar represents that which takes place suddenly, unexpectedly. Things that occur overnight (think whirlwind courtships) are often the result of what is located in the Hour Pillar. It represents the flash and fleeting. With Ren Wu, representing sudden change in circumstances, explosive changes, volatility, located in the Pillar that in itself, denotes sudden change, flash and fleeting, things which happen in the blink of an eye, and you have all the signs of a tense situation coming to a high alert stand-off.

Nitpickers of course will say, okay so the whole thing hinges on how big the fire is. If it is a small fire, then Ren will rule the day anyway and it will all have been just a lot of noise (or in diplomatic cocktail speak, a lot of ‘strutting around’). We might get the odd incidence of gunboat diplomacy but nothing major because Ren will still dominate the Ding.

Here’s the thing: in 2011, Ren is weak – it has no roots at all, and appears only on Stem. Contrast this with the conditions that exist for Ding to become a huge bonfire in this chart. Firstly, there is the existing of firestarter (the Yi Wood, which although burns fast, allow for Ding to get going). There is the Axe (Geng), which is forged by the Ding (note, partial Fire combo in the chart) and thus is sharp enough to cut the damp Jia, to feed the Fire. There is the Xin, which can carve up small strips of the Jia, to continue to feed the Ding. And the action of Geng chopping Jia in itself produces sparks of Ding. Ding is also supported by the presence of Bing in the chart whilst Ren is unsupported and must rely on Geng (which is lousy at producing Water) and Xin (better at producing Water).

Ding people, is holding all the cards.

Now the question is how to translate this pile of elemental technical gobbledygook into practical normal-people-speak. The easiest way to look at this is to translate it into political situations first in my view.

• With the dual themes of againstness and volatility, we can say that existing political conflicts around the world will continue to persist, with a potential for a war or at least a major tension that could threaten to escalate into a serious conflict occurring at the end of 2011. On a micro level (individual nations), countries that are already facing significant political turmoil will probably continue to see that turmoil fester.
• Agent provocateurs (or shit-stirrers, take your pick) will be instrumental in determining the turn of events, and the extent in which things go downhill. Where did this come from? Xin Mao is a pillar that in itself denotes betrayal, but Xins are famous for their shit-stirring abilities, especially when doing so from a distance (or via whisper campaigns or tactics of subversion). In the 2011 chart, Ding is not going to get anywhere without a firestarter in the form of Yi, which Xin is sitting on. If the agent provocateurs are ignored, then the risk of escalating conflict is reduced. (interesting point to note, Kim Jong Il is a Yi Wood, and next year, 7 Killings appears in the Stem for Yi Wood. Risk of Korean peninsular tensions escalating? Significant by this reading).
• Politically, the make peace vs the go to war groups will continue to rage. Jia denotes benevolence and support, denoting that softball tactics (international aide, engagement, rapprochement, diplomacy) will be the preferred approach of one side. Geng on the other hand is righteousness and justice, and carries a distinctly hawkish overtone. In 2011, the battle between hawks and doves will become more evident. In 2010, hawks and doves appears evenly matched (both Metal and Wood calling upon almost equal measures of support – Metal using rooting, Wood using the season) but Wood seems to come out better. Significantly however because there is no strong Ding in the 2010 chart, the hawks and doves are trying very hard to maintain some semblance of civilised discourse with each other. In 2011, not so. It will be all out war between the two parties because there is the presence of Ding. The result? The hawks can call upon principles and the moral high ground (Ding = Geng’s officer) whilst the doves will come across as going against doing the right thing (Ding = Jia’s Hurting Officer).
• Politically/socially, governments will continue to have to deal with the challenges of doing what is right (ie: austerity measures) and doing what is compassionate (ie: keeping welfare going). And they are not going to win either side over with their actions.  Note that both Jia (the Liberals/Labour/Socialists/Democrats) and Geng (the conservatives/Republicans) have 7 Killings in the year, which is equally strong. So really, damned if you do and damned if you don’t. (note to world leaders: NOT a good year to call an election).
• I would say there is the continuing threat of anarchy (or at least, some kind of chaos/unrest) coming in because of the dual presence of PROVOCATION and VOLATILITY in the chart. This I surmised from the presence of Indirect Resource and 7 Killings, which typically is a combination hinting at an unconventional approach to doing things, and frequently utilising  an element of violence or threat . Also, the presence of the Xin Mao Pillar (which bear in mind, presides over the YEAR and thus carries significant weightage in the tone/colours of the year’s influence) again suggests provocative tactics and the threat of anarchy or unleashing anarchy is one of the favourite tactics in the playbook of agent provocateurs/shit-stirrers. Fire is very strong in the year and of course, it is the emotion of passion, but also rage and anger. So the sort of demonstrations that have been witnessed in the UK over student tuition fee-hikes might well become rather commonplace across the rest of the world.

2011 will end almost, in a sort of terse state. There will be a real sense of a Harry Potter 7 Part 1 ending; a greater sense of uncertainty of things to come.  But to know if the final quarter of 2011 carries a certain negative outcome, or will 2012 be a more positive turning point hinges on 2012 itself, and how the first quarter of 2012 interacts with the last quarter of 2011.

More to come.