A quick post on the story I posted on my FB page about the Hindenburg Omen which suggests the US is in for a Double Dip recession.

Disclaimer: I am not an economist. I have some economic knowledge but I am not a trained economist. This is not to be construed as economic/financial/stock market advice in any way.

It coincides with a question by a friend about why he got into a car accident on a Ji You 己 酉 day, rather than the Wu Shen 戊 申 day before (his chart has a Tiger, hence the inclination towards the Horse Carriage Disaster). I rattled off my explaination as he seemed to be under the impression that the Monkey was the peak of the Metal season (it’s not) and that although it would SEEM that we have to be concerned about the Jia Shen 甲 申 month (since it is a Fan Yin with the Geng Yin 庚 寅 year), we arguably have to be worried about Yi You 乙 酉 month as well.

Here’s my theory (and it ties in also with the Double Dip recession idea)

First of all, Jia Shen 甲 申 hasn’t exactly been uneventful. We have one major plane crash, and last I checked, half of Pakistan and a good part of China is under water at the moment. And the Chinese whispers about how the economy DOESN’T seem to be going where it should have really started to emerge this month. So Jia Shen 甲 申 is bringing its effect without a doubt. Also, my friend failed to realise that since he already was expecting the Monkey to wield the ax, he had been EXTRA careful driving this month. Let’s just say this is a guy who likes to think he’s living The Fast and the Furious on a daily basis in his car, and this month, he has been Driving Miss Daisy.

But in a sense, it can be argued that Jia Shen is the appetizer or amuse bouche to the Metal x Wood effect that characterises this year.  Yi You is when things will really kick in for two reasons:

The peak of Metal is actually in You – this is the Cardinal of the Metal season, and thus when Metal Qi is at its purest.

Coincidentally also the chart of the year shows Yi You in the 3 quarter:

Together, these provide a high probability that something major is going to happen in September.If you look at the pattern of the chart above, it has indications of a Double Dip Recession. Per Wiki: “A W-shaped recession or “double dip” recession, occurs when the economy has a recession, emerges from the recession with a short period of growth, but quickly falls back into recession“.

Now, if we look at the chart above, Q1 is marked by Geng Yin 庚 寅, Q2 is marked by Wu Yin 戊 寅, Q3 is marked by Yi You乙 酉 , and Q4 is marked by Ji Mao 己 卯. Of all these four pillars, it could be argued that Wu Yin 戊 寅 is the only pillar that is suggestive of some form of Stability since Earth appears on top. In all of the other three pillars, you have some form of negative effect going on – Geng Yin 庚 寅 is known as a Head Chopping Feet pillar, Yi You 乙 酉 in itself suggests betrayal or deceit since Yi and Xin are antagonistic by nature, and although Ji Mao 己 卯implies some measure of stability, bear in mind that it is right next to the stabbing You.

If one translates all that into a sort of ‘economic’ forecast (i see a ‘W’ but most people probably would argue I’m seeing too much into it), what you see is volatility in Q1, some measure of stability in Q2, with Jia trying to break through Wu – hard and tough, but suggestive of ‘TRYING’, and then in Q3, it is every man for himself (expect the markets to exhibit both predatory and fickle behaviour at the same time, and lots of speculation) and Q4 marks some attempt to bring back stability BUT there is no trust in the market (Ji Mao 己 卯 is Ji seated on it’s own 7 Killings, and let’s not forget the Rooster next door to the Mao).

Consider that Q3 is marked by Yi You and we have a Yi You month coming up, and that traditionally September and October are always the worst months for the stock market, emergence of a Double Dip recession seems very likely.

Of course, there is also ultimately the overall fact that the year has no Water, and Water is considered to be an indicator of activity and movement in the economy. Those who have taken a peak at 2011’s chart will also note that the first 3 quarters of 2011 also contain no water, and water only comes in at the end of Q4 2011.